Economists expect US recession, above-target inflation this year

WASHINGTON — The United States will likely enter a recession this year and face high inflation well into 2024, a majority of economists predicted in their response to a semiannual survey.

More than two-thirds of respondents to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Policy Survey also see inflation remaining above four percent at the end of this year.

The survey summarized the responses of 217 NABE members, and was conducted between March 2 and March 10, the organization said in a statement.

The US Federal Reserve has raised rates 4.75 percentage points in a bid to tackle rising inflation, which reached its highest level in decades last year.

Price rises slowed slightly to an annual level of 6.0 percent in February, which is well above the Fed's long-term target of two percent.

Amid the gloomy economic forecast, there was also some good news, with just five percent of respondents believing the US is currently in the midst of a recession, "far fewer" than the 19 percent in its previous economic survey, the NABE president Julia Coronado said in a statement.

Economists also slightly raised the chances of the Fed achieving a so-called "soft landing" -- bringing down inflation while avoiding a recession -- from 27 percent in August to 30 percent in March this year.

Agence France-Presse

Most Fed officials say slower rate hike pace appropriate 'soon'

WASHINGTON –– A majority of US Federal Reserve policymakers found that a slower pace of interest rate hikes would "likely soon be appropriate," the central bank said Wednesday.

The Fed has embarked on an aggressive path to cool demand and bring down prices as inflation in the world's biggest economy surged to the highest level in decades, raising the benchmark borrowing rate 6 times this year.

With inflation hovering around 7.7 percent, the latest policy meeting in early November produced a fourth consecutive three-quarter point interest rate hike, a major rise.

This brings the rate to a range between 3.75 and 4 percent, the highest since January 2008.

But "a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate," according to minutes of the November meeting released Wednesday.

"A slower pace in these circumstances would better allow the committee to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability," the minutes said.

Participants of the meeting noted that it would take time for the full effects of policy to be realized, and a few found that easing the pace of interest rate hikes could lower risks of instability in the financial system.

In a sign of diverging opinions, some cautioned the impact of rate hikes could "exceed what was required" to bring down inflation.

FEW SIGNS OF ABATING

But policymakers agreed at the meeting earlier this month that inflation was "unacceptably high" and well above the longer-run goal of 2 percent.

Annual consumer inflation came in at 7.7 percent in October, down from a blistering high 9.1 percent in June but still underscoring a heightened cost of living.

With surging consumer prices showing "little sign thus far of abating," some officials found that policy might have to be tightened more than anticipated.

They maintained that a period of slower growth would help reduce inflationary pressures.

Despite signs of slowing activity as the Fed's rate hikes trickled through the economy, officials saw that the labor market remained tight, with elevated wage growth.

New home sales posted a surprise increase last month as well, while demand for big-ticket American-made goods picked up more than expected, data released on Wednesday showed.

"Policy makers appear set to slow the pace of rate hikes," said economist Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics.

But he noted that the Fed's path toward a soft landing is increasingly narrow, adding that the Fed's staff economists see "the odds of a US recession in the next year as basically a coin flip."

A growing number of voices, including some Fed officials, have advocated for smaller steps in the coming months.

Last week, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said signs of easing inflation pressures and a slowing US economy could allow the central bank to dial back its pace of rate hikes.

Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard also said last week that it would likely be "appropriate soon" for the Fed to slow the pace of rate increases, adding that it would take time for tightening so far to flow through to the economy.

Agence France-Presse 

Biden admits 'very slight' US recession possibility

WASHINGTON - US President Joe Biden conceded Tuesday that a "slight" recession was a possibility following a downcast IMF economic forecast, amid rising inflation and uncertainty after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"I don't think there will be a recession," Biden told CNN. "If it is, it'll be a very slight recession. That is, we’ll move down slightly."

Agence France-Presse

Ford to spend $1 billion more than expected on supplier costs

NEW YORK, United States - Ford said that inflation-related supplier costs during the third quarter will run about $1 billion higher than originally expected.

It also said at the end of the third quarter it expects to have 40,000 to 45,000 vehicles in inventory lacking certain parts because of supply chain issues.

Ford said it expects to deliver those vehicles in the fourth quarter and thus is sticking to its forecast for earnings before interest and taxes, its preferred performance indicator.

Ford shares were down nearly 5 percent on Wall Street in electronic trading after the closing bell.

It said the vehicles that are currently missing parts are mainly high-demand, high-margin models of popular trucks and SUVs.

Like other auto makers, Ford has been grappling since early 2021 with a shortage of computer chips, which are critical to modern vehicles.

General Motors finished the second quarter with nearly 95,000 vehicles that were missing certain parts. Its shares were down 1.5 percent after the warning from Ford.

Ford is scheduled to release definitive third quarter results on October 26.

Agence France-Presse

Oil prices jump, stocks mixed with spotlight on surging inflation

LONDON - Oil prices rallied Wednesday, adding to soaring inflation concerns, while stock markets diverged.

Crude futures jumped 2.5 percent with Brent North Sea headed towards $120 per barrel.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Wednesday warned that a ban on Russian oil and gas imports over the Ukraine war would drive the world's energy markets to a "collapse". 

"It is absolutely obvious that without Russian hydrocarbons, if sanctions are introduced, there will be a collapse of the oil and gas markets," Novak told Russia's lower house State Duma as reported by Russian news agencies.

"The rise in energy prices may be unpredictable," Novak added. 

On stock markets, London's benchmark FTSE 100 index was up after official data showed UK annual inflation had surged to 6.2 percent last month, the highest level in 30 years. 

While inflation increases company costs it can boost their revenues by sizeable amounts. 

The British data were published ahead of a UK budget update Wednesday that could ease a cost-of-living crisis for millions of Britons as inflation rockets worldwide largely owing to soaring energy prices. 

"Today's data confirm a worsening squeeze on consumer incomes," said Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK.

"These price rises were dominated by increases in energy, and we expect further rises this year as global energy, food, and other commodities markets are impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

Elsewhere, eurozone stock markets fell Wednesday after Asia's top indices closed higher.

Wall Street had rallied Tuesday on optimism that the Federal Reserve's plan to hike interest rates would help to bring inflation under control.

While there remains plenty of concern about the war in Ukraine, analysts said some confidence had seeped back into trading floors as investors bet on consumer resilience and economies continue to reopen.

Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell this week said that the US central bank was prepared to act more aggressively on lifting borrowing costs should American inflation -- already at a 40-year high -- not fall quickly enough.

Officials lifted US rates last week by a quarter of a point but some have advocated bigger increases, a view Powell suggested he was open to believing that the world's biggest economy was strong enough to withstand such a move.

Agence France-Presse

Nickel soars to record high of $54,880 per ton

LONDON - Nickel soared to a record high of $54,880 per ton as the economic fallout from the Ukraine conflict widened.

Russia, which invaded its neighbor 12 days ago, is a major producer of the metal used to make stainless steel and batteries for electric vehicles, and supply fears saw its price soar an unprecedented 90 percent on the day and shatter its 2008 peak of $48,000 per tonne.

Agence France-Presse

Eurozone inflation back to positive; Brexit worries weigh

BRUSSELS, Belgium—Eurozone inflation left negative territory in June, statistics showed Thursday, but economic uncertainty from Brexit sparked concerns that damaging deflation could return to Europe.

The rise in consumer prices is welcome news after months of an unprecedented stimulus program by the European Central Bank to jumpstart sluggish growth and low prices in the eurozone.

Consumer prices in June rose a slight 0.1 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in May, the EU’s Eurostat statistics agency said. This was higher than the zero percent forecast by analysts surveyed by data provider Factset.

“Amid the heightened uncertainties triggered by the Brexit vote, some cheery news for the ECB as the eurozone exited deflation in June,” said Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.

Energy prices again drove consumer prices lower, dropping by 6.5 percent, but this was far less than the negative 8.5 percent a month earlier.

Faced with low prices, the European Central Bank has embarked on a series of unprecedented stimulus programs in a desperate battle to kick-start sluggish growth and inflation in the eurozone.

Slow eurozone growth has seen inflation slide in and out of negative territory, threatening a dangerous downward spiral of falling prices and wages. The ECB aims to get inflation back to two percent or just below, a level it deems healthy for growth.

But analysts warned that knock-on effects from the shock decision by voters in Britain to leave the EU could reverse any progress made towards boosting inflation and growth.

At an EU summit on Tuesday, ECB head Mario Draghi warned leaders that the fallout from Brexit could cost the eurozone up to 0.5 percent in GDP growth over the next three years.

“Uncertainty over the effects of Brexit could add to downward pressure on wage growth and increase firms’ reluctance to raise their prices in the coming months,” said Jennifer McKeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics.

The Frankfurt-based central bank this month took the controversial step of buying corporate bonds, its latest weapon in the fight against deflation that also includes negative interest rates for banks.

Critics in powerful Germany however charge that the ECB is overstepping its mandate by lavishing billions on corporate giants and say it could be distorting markets and creating bubbles.

The ECB has already made unprecedented amounts of ultra-cheap loans available to banks on condition they pass it on as credit for businesses and households.

The ECB has also embarked on a major asset purchase program known as quantitative easing, or QE.

source: business.inquirer.net